The 2025 Oscar race has officially entered its messy phase.
With nomination voting opening later this month, Hollywood's awards industrial complex is in overdrive, and the jockeying has gotten noticeably tense.
This year's best actress category is the one everyone's whispering about.
Demi Moore's career-revival narrative for "The Substance" has become the season's most unlikely awards storyline, and she's been working every room from Telluride to the Governors Awards.
But she's up against Mikey Madison's breakout turn in "Anora" and Cynthia Erivo's powerhouse performance in "Wicked," which has the kind of populist momentum that Academy voters rarely ignore.
Kieran Culkin has been the presumed frontrunner for "A Real Pain" since Sundance, but recent wins for Zoe Saldaña in "Emilia Pérez" have made her a lock in supporting actress and turned the conversation toward whether the film can pull off a rare acting-plus-Best Picture double.
What's making this year different is the sheer volume of genuinely competitive films. "Conclave," "The Brutalist," "A Complete Unknown," and "Dune: Part Two" are all still in the conversation for Best Picture, which means no single campaign has been able to dominate the news cycle the way "Oppenheimer" did last year.
Studios are spending accordingly — and quietly panicking.
The behind-the-scenes drama is where things get juicy.
Two high-profile publicists have reportedly stopped speaking to each other after a heated exchange at a holiday party, and at least one studio has been accused of planting negative stories about a rival's campaign budget.
It's the kind of thing that never makes the trades but absolutely shapes how voters feel when they fill out their ballots.
Netflix is pushing hard for "Emilia Pérez" and "The Piano Lesson," while Apple is betting big on "Blitz." The theatrical-versus-streaming tension that dominated awards seasons a few years ago has cooled somewhat, but you can still feel it in the room when a filmmaker gets asked about "the theatrical experience" for the fifteenth time on a red carpet.
And then there's the wild card nobody saw coming: the grassroots campaign for a beloved character actor who's been working for four decades without a single nomination.
Fan accounts have been popping up on X and TikTok, and one viral clip of his performance has crossed 20 million views.
Academy members insist social media doesn't sway them.
Nomination morning is set for January, and the shortlists will reveal whether this year's buzz translated into actual votes — or whether it was all just noise. **Our take:** The Oscars have always been as much about campaigning as craft, and this year's race is no exception.
The performances are genuinely strong, which makes the behind-the-scenes sniping feel sillier than usual.
Final Thoughts
Whoever ends up with a nomination should enjoy it — the drama leading up to it is exhausting just to watch.